VA REGIONAL OFFICE
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE EAST , WARM HUMID AIR WILL ADVANCE THE FRONT, AND SHARP COOL AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND IT DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES 30 TO 40 DEGREES . THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGEING WIND WILL BE LIKELY TO OCCUR. AS OF RIGHT NOW EAST PA LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT I EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER THRUOUT THE EAST COAST . ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GA TO SRN NY...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER CONUS
THROUGH PERIOD. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING SWWD AND NEWD
FROM MID-UPPER CYCLONE OVER KS/NEB BORDER -- IS FCST TO ASSUME MORE
NEUTRAL TILT AS UPSTREAM VORTICITY LOBES MOVE THROUGH BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW SW-SE OF LOW. PHASING WITH NRN STREAM THROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN AND NWRN ONT -- WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLONE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
9/00Z...MOVING EWD ACROSS THAT PART OF ONT N OF LH DURING ENSUING 12
HOURS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APCHG 140W IN NERN PAC
-- SHOULD MOVE ASHORE NWRN COAST EARLY IN PERIOD BEFORE PIVOTING
ENEWD OVER ID/MT. COLD AIR ALOFT AND RELATED STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ATOP MARINE MOISTURE...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHALLOW TSTMS
NEAR WA/ORE COAST.
AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED AT 7/15Z OVER EXTREME NERN MO IS FCST TO MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI BY 8/12Z AND OCCLUDE. COLD/QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST WEAKLY RECOGNIZABLE LOW.
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM ERN OH...TN VALLEY...SERN LA CORRIDOR AT
8/12Z TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...OUTER BANKS...N-CENTRAL FL REGIONS NEAR
END OF PERIOD. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND SERN NY BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN FROM W-E BY COLD FRONT.
...MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO GA/CAROLINAS...
EPISODIC BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ELONGATED
CORRIDOR FROM SRN NY/PA SWWD AT LEAST ACROSS PORTIONS
CAROLINAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO GA...AS FOREGOING MOIST AIR MASS --
I.E. TO LOW 60S MOST AREAS AND MID 60S NEAR GULF COAST --
DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK..SO WILL CINH...AND LIFT INVOF FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS. AMBIENT
WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH AREA UNDER ERN RIM OF ROUGHLY
50 KT 500 MB FLOW AND 50-75 KT WINDS IN 250-300 MB LAYER. MEAN WIND
AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE FCST TO BE ALIGNED ONLY SLIGHTLY
RIGHTWARD OF CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL ORIENTATION...HOWEVER SOME LEWP/BOW
FORMATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL
LOCALLY. ELONGATED AND SLIGHTLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
FCST...SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION IN ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...EITHER IN EARLY STAGES OF
ORGANIZATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS...OR IN WARM SECTOR TO
THEIR E.
MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDORS OF SVR POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS OUTLOOK
AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS SPECIFIC MESOSCALE FOCI...I.E. AREAS OF
MORE PROBABLE/SUSTAINED AND PREFRONTAL SFC HEATING...BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.
SVR POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH NWD THROUGH QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
AS BUOYANCY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED.
...UPPER OH VALLEY...WRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN GULF COAST...
ONE OR MORE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS WRN PA/OH SWWD
ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...CONTINUING FROM DAY-1 PERIOD. WEAKNESS OF
BOTH INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF SVR
THREAT...WITH MOST FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 300 J/KG MLCAPE
FROM ERN TN NWD...AND EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS OFTEN ROOTED ABOVE
SFC. BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER WITH SWD EXTENT FROM ERN TN
ACROSS AL...BUT FOLLOWING GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONVERGENCE.
THEREFORE SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL FOR CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK.
..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GA TO SRN NY...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER CONUS
THROUGH PERIOD. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING SWWD AND NEWD
FROM MID-UPPER CYCLONE OVER KS/NEB BORDER -- IS FCST TO ASSUME MORE
NEUTRAL TILT AS UPSTREAM VORTICITY LOBES MOVE THROUGH BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW SW-SE OF LOW. PHASING WITH NRN STREAM THROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN AND NWRN ONT -- WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLONE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
9/00Z...MOVING EWD ACROSS THAT PART OF ONT N OF LH DURING ENSUING 12
HOURS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APCHG 140W IN NERN PAC
-- SHOULD MOVE ASHORE NWRN COAST EARLY IN PERIOD BEFORE PIVOTING
ENEWD OVER ID/MT. COLD AIR ALOFT AND RELATED STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ATOP MARINE MOISTURE...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHALLOW TSTMS
NEAR WA/ORE COAST.
AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED AT 7/15Z OVER EXTREME NERN MO IS FCST TO MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI BY 8/12Z AND OCCLUDE. COLD/QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST WEAKLY RECOGNIZABLE LOW.
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM ERN OH...TN VALLEY...SERN LA CORRIDOR AT
8/12Z TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...OUTER BANKS...N-CENTRAL FL REGIONS NEAR
END OF PERIOD. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND SERN NY BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN FROM W-E BY COLD FRONT.
...MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO GA/CAROLINAS...
EPISODIC BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ELONGATED
CORRIDOR FROM SRN NY/PA SWWD AT LEAST ACROSS PORTIONS
CAROLINAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO GA...AS FOREGOING MOIST AIR MASS --
I.E. TO LOW 60S MOST AREAS AND MID 60S NEAR GULF COAST --
DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK..SO WILL CINH...AND LIFT INVOF FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS. AMBIENT
WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH AREA UNDER ERN RIM OF ROUGHLY
50 KT 500 MB FLOW AND 50-75 KT WINDS IN 250-300 MB LAYER. MEAN WIND
AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE FCST TO BE ALIGNED ONLY SLIGHTLY
RIGHTWARD OF CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL ORIENTATION...HOWEVER SOME LEWP/BOW
FORMATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL
LOCALLY. ELONGATED AND SLIGHTLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
FCST...SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION IN ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...EITHER IN EARLY STAGES OF
ORGANIZATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS...OR IN WARM SECTOR TO
THEIR E.
MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDORS OF SVR POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS OUTLOOK
AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS SPECIFIC MESOSCALE FOCI...I.E. AREAS OF
MORE PROBABLE/SUSTAINED AND PREFRONTAL SFC HEATING...BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.
SVR POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH NWD THROUGH QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
AS BUOYANCY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED.
...UPPER OH VALLEY...WRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN GULF COAST...
ONE OR MORE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS WRN PA/OH SWWD
ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...CONTINUING FROM DAY-1 PERIOD. WEAKNESS OF
BOTH INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF SVR
THREAT...WITH MOST FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 300 J/KG MLCAPE
FROM ERN TN NWD...AND EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS OFTEN ROOTED ABOVE
SFC. BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER WITH SWD EXTENT FROM ERN TN
ACROSS AL...BUT FOLLOWING GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONVERGENCE.
THEREFORE SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL FOR CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK.
..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2010
Thursday, December 3, 2009
WINTER WEATHER MAY BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY
A coastal low is probabe to develop fri into sat. depending on exact track will depend on amount of snow vs rain, Temp trends have been trending down and models are not all in agreement only that there will be precip fri nite through sat nite . will keep updated
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
FALL STORMS SOAK SW VA
An upper level low along with an influence of a coast allowed a boundry to setup and form severe weather. Winds of 60mph hail the size of pennys and rain of 1.12 inches in 30 min occured.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
SEVERE STORM GETS FUNNEL
August 11 2009
In one of my new found wide open areas to visually see storms , i was sitting to gather pics of a developing severe thunderstorm. I was sitting there camera at hand . I noticed a nice rain free base behind the precip core statind to get a wall cloud. then a funnel. No touchdown occured , but it was a nice begaining to end shot .
severe wx
In one of my new found wide open areas to visually see storms , i was sitting to gather pics of a developing severe thunderstorm. I was sitting there camera at hand . I noticed a nice rain free base behind the precip core statind to get a wall cloud. then a funnel. No touchdown occured , but it was a nice begaining to end shot .
severe wx
Saturday, August 8, 2009
A SEVERE DAY, Not as bad for me
Severe weather broke out in SW VA as a low developed in NC . There were numorous reports of hail and wind damage as well as flash floodinfg but most happened just south of us in the NRV(new River Valley) we had one interesting storm but just under severe limits with 45 mph win gusts and torrental rain of an inch an hour totaling in 1.34 inches for the day
It was my moms bithday so we i spent most of my time with her and stayed at home to see what would hit us....
Friday, July 31, 2009
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD TREAT HIGH FOR ROANOKE
The latest MesoAnalysis for the SPC is looking nasty.The Probablity of tornadoes is increasing , there is alot of change of wind with height. There will be torrental rain with the dewpoints in the 70s it is looking conducive for both.
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